Tonight the Oilers take on the LA Kings, this will not be an easy match for this young team but it will be fun to see how they do.
Oilers Start
So much has been written about the Oilers not being able to match their start, and how the advanced stats show it. Poppycock! Does anyone really need to look at an advanced stats sheet to figure out that Khabibulin won't have a .969 save percentage at the end of the year and the Oilers will not be first overall in the West. I am not going to insult anyone's intelligence. No the Oilers won't finish first in the Western Conference. Wow, I am a genius. That being said, those 16 points won't be taken away, enjoy it while it lasts! We were looking for improvement this year, and it has been a fun stretch. It does not take a rocket scientist to see that this team is vastly improved though!
Omark
Again so much has been written with many advanced stats to try to tell you it was a mistake to sent Omark down. If you look back at my blogs I told you that my stats were not showing the same thing and I thought he might be in trouble. Still not sure if he fits on this team long term. More on that later.
Though do I need any advanced stats to realize that there is no room in the Inn for Omark. Simple question. Who sits out to take Omark's place? Does he play over the any of the Kids on the Hall? Not a chance. Does he play over the steady Smyth, Horcoff, Jones line? Does anyone out there really think he is defensively responsible enough to play all their tough minutes? Not a chance. Does he play over Belanger and Petrell who have defined roles that they excel at? Not a chance. A few games ago I mentioned the possibility existed that Renney may play him over Paajarvi, but he picked up his game and is more reliable defensively.
Now it could obviously be argued that he could play on the 4th line, but why would you want a player that does not have to clear waivers and can play 18 to 20 minutes a night on the farm to play 5 to 6 minutes on the 4th line?
See it really doesn't matter what my stats show, what the advanced stats show. It was the obvious and right choice to be sent to Oklohoma.
Hemsky
Complicating the matter even more for Omark is the imminent return of Alex Hemsky. The Oilers start really has given them the luxury of not rushing any moves but it is obvious that something has to give.
Omark is not going to have a huge return, Gagner might but do you want to give him up if Hemsky is not signing. Tough decisions ahead for Mr. Tambellini, but I do not expect any of those decisions happening quickly unless Omark decides that he either wants to be moved or returned to Europe. For anyone that may not know, Omark has an out clause in his contract that he can be returned to Europe instead of reporting to the AHL.
Does Omark force Tambellini's hand? We'll see.
Enjoy the game!
Thursday 3 November 2011
Friday 28 October 2011
Game day -Oilers visit Colorado
Winner of this game takes over the lead in the Northwest Division. Ok I don't care how early it is in the season, is this really a sentence anyone expected to read 9 games in? The Oilers start one of the biggest and toughest tests of the season tonight as they take on the Avalanche, the start of a 8 games out of the next 9 games on the road true test.
If the Oilers get around 9 points in that stretch, I will be convinced that this team is on the cusp of being a possible playoff team. There are some encouraging signs. Last night was a fire drill in the 3rd period but this is a game that the Oilers would have lost last year and so was the one against the Canucks a few days earlier. They are bending in their own zone but not breaking. Teams are getting fewer grade "A" chances.
Horcoff/Smyth/Jones
Impressed with this trio, getting all the tough assignments, most of the d-zone face-offs, they have been remarkable. Oh the Kids and the Hall line is getting all the press but they owe some of their success to the before mentioned trio because Renney can shelter them, get them some easier minutes. Do not misunderstand me, I am not knocking the kids, they will be the best line in Hockey sooner than later. The fact that Renney has been able to rely on a more experienced line has helped the Oilers immensely.
Dubnyk
The Oilers are playing their backup tonight, a backup with a stellar .920 save percentage. Somehow I think they may be ok tonight. Goaltending has stopped being a question mark to a strength in this young team.
Gagner, Belanger, Paajarvi and assorted others
Calling any player not on the first two lines, the Oilers need some production and need it soon! Perhaps the Kids and the Hall line and the goaltending can carry them through this stretch but I am not really that confident. When is Hemsky back again? (just read on twitter from Jason Gregor that he is expected to play in the 2nd week of the trip, great news for the Oilers)
Petry and Peckham
I said in an earlier blog that Peckham would get another opportunity, but he didn't make much of it last night. Time could be ticking on his career as an Edmonton Oiler. Petry will most likely draw in, his test will be moving the puck quickly and consistently forward.
RNH
Read many an article and blog today about how the Oilers did the fans and RNH a great disservice by not announcing it early. Balderdash! I didn't write about him making the team in the last few blogs as I really didn't want to insult anyone's intelligence. It was as obvious as the Sun rising in the morning and as much as that is a glorious spectacle every morning, I don't get all giddy that it happens.
The Oilers do not need some huge ceremony proclaiming he isn't going back to Red Deer. They did not do one for the kids last year. A simple announcement and a press release is enough! It is not the Oilers fault that the media made it a story by asking every day. It really stopped being one the minute the hats poured down at Rexall Place.
There is no story here and no controversy, besides that the media need a new story!
Enjoy tonights game!
If the Oilers get around 9 points in that stretch, I will be convinced that this team is on the cusp of being a possible playoff team. There are some encouraging signs. Last night was a fire drill in the 3rd period but this is a game that the Oilers would have lost last year and so was the one against the Canucks a few days earlier. They are bending in their own zone but not breaking. Teams are getting fewer grade "A" chances.
Horcoff/Smyth/Jones
Impressed with this trio, getting all the tough assignments, most of the d-zone face-offs, they have been remarkable. Oh the Kids and the Hall line is getting all the press but they owe some of their success to the before mentioned trio because Renney can shelter them, get them some easier minutes. Do not misunderstand me, I am not knocking the kids, they will be the best line in Hockey sooner than later. The fact that Renney has been able to rely on a more experienced line has helped the Oilers immensely.
Dubnyk
The Oilers are playing their backup tonight, a backup with a stellar .920 save percentage. Somehow I think they may be ok tonight. Goaltending has stopped being a question mark to a strength in this young team.
Gagner, Belanger, Paajarvi and assorted others
Calling any player not on the first two lines, the Oilers need some production and need it soon! Perhaps the Kids and the Hall line and the goaltending can carry them through this stretch but I am not really that confident. When is Hemsky back again? (just read on twitter from Jason Gregor that he is expected to play in the 2nd week of the trip, great news for the Oilers)
Petry and Peckham
I said in an earlier blog that Peckham would get another opportunity, but he didn't make much of it last night. Time could be ticking on his career as an Edmonton Oiler. Petry will most likely draw in, his test will be moving the puck quickly and consistently forward.
RNH
Read many an article and blog today about how the Oilers did the fans and RNH a great disservice by not announcing it early. Balderdash! I didn't write about him making the team in the last few blogs as I really didn't want to insult anyone's intelligence. It was as obvious as the Sun rising in the morning and as much as that is a glorious spectacle every morning, I don't get all giddy that it happens.
The Oilers do not need some huge ceremony proclaiming he isn't going back to Red Deer. They did not do one for the kids last year. A simple announcement and a press release is enough! It is not the Oilers fault that the media made it a story by asking every day. It really stopped being one the minute the hats poured down at Rexall Place.
There is no story here and no controversy, besides that the media need a new story!
Enjoy tonights game!
Thursday 27 October 2011
Game day - The undefeated Caps visit the Oil
This is a game that will help see where the young Oil stand against the top team in the NHL.
Some quick observations from early this season. Not too stats orientated, as it is too early to get a complete picture, and until the Oilers play a significant amount of games on the road they are going to be skewed.
Unbalanced scoring/unbalanced schedule
The Oilers are getting 50% of their scoring from the Kid line, obviously if the Oilers want to be successful especially on the road, they will need more secondary scoring. Look to the Oilers to struggle to score goals on the road.
Paajarvi
He needs to be more productive, when I look at the forward movement stats, it is not that he is awful or leaking chances, but he is not creating much either. He has great speed and strength but more often than not you see him cut to the outside, get into the zone and take a weak shot. He needs to continue to drive to the net to create havoc or, stop, turn and look for the trailer or the other Oiler forward that may be going to the net.
At the moment he is playing over Omark because he doesn't leak as many chances but I don't see Renney's patience being infinite.
Potter
I keep on thinking the magic will wear off, and he will come down to earth but he is just so smart defensively and makes few mistakes. He makes the subtle smart plays, like not following the player behind the net when he is unsure of coverage in front. Instead he will stop at the net, watch the player behind the net, turn his head and make sure that there is no other player left unguarded and then stay in front of the net, leaving the person behind the net no play.
In my opinion, he is too smart of a player to have a real regression at this point.
Khabibulin
I heard the whispers, the comments from people that are familiar and know his motis operandi. When he feels challenged he will play his best hockey, he needs to feel competition. I ignored it and thought that it was a slam dunk that Dubnyk would run away with the starting job. Perhaps fatigue will set in and he will come back to earth but either way, it looks like goaltending will not be the issue most of us thought it would be.
Next few games the true test
The Oilers have a significant number of road games coming up, by the end of that span we will have a better idea of where the Oilers stand.
My early impression though as the lack of depth in scoring will be a problem.
Some quick observations from early this season. Not too stats orientated, as it is too early to get a complete picture, and until the Oilers play a significant amount of games on the road they are going to be skewed.
Unbalanced scoring/unbalanced schedule
The Oilers are getting 50% of their scoring from the Kid line, obviously if the Oilers want to be successful especially on the road, they will need more secondary scoring. Look to the Oilers to struggle to score goals on the road.
Paajarvi
He needs to be more productive, when I look at the forward movement stats, it is not that he is awful or leaking chances, but he is not creating much either. He has great speed and strength but more often than not you see him cut to the outside, get into the zone and take a weak shot. He needs to continue to drive to the net to create havoc or, stop, turn and look for the trailer or the other Oiler forward that may be going to the net.
At the moment he is playing over Omark because he doesn't leak as many chances but I don't see Renney's patience being infinite.
Potter
I keep on thinking the magic will wear off, and he will come down to earth but he is just so smart defensively and makes few mistakes. He makes the subtle smart plays, like not following the player behind the net when he is unsure of coverage in front. Instead he will stop at the net, watch the player behind the net, turn his head and make sure that there is no other player left unguarded and then stay in front of the net, leaving the person behind the net no play.
In my opinion, he is too smart of a player to have a real regression at this point.
Khabibulin
I heard the whispers, the comments from people that are familiar and know his motis operandi. When he feels challenged he will play his best hockey, he needs to feel competition. I ignored it and thought that it was a slam dunk that Dubnyk would run away with the starting job. Perhaps fatigue will set in and he will come back to earth but either way, it looks like goaltending will not be the issue most of us thought it would be.
Next few games the true test
The Oilers have a significant number of road games coming up, by the end of that span we will have a better idea of where the Oilers stand.
My early impression though as the lack of depth in scoring will be a problem.
Wednesday 26 October 2011
Federal Government reneges on promise......AGAIN.
It was great to finally get the news I have been waiting and hoping for for 5 years today. The City voted 10-3 for a project that as a hockey fan was a slam dunk, but as a citizen of Edmonton was a long time coming. I was born and raised in Edmonton and anything that can transform this city is something I will support.
That is why I am shocked, dismayed and extremely angry tonight to hear that the Federal Government has reneged on yet another promise to Alberta and Edmonton and will not fund the 92 million for the Alberta Royal Museum. This basically puts the project on hold. Of course that same Government backed out of Expo funding and the Portrait Gallery promised to our City.
I have always been proud to be a Canadian, but I have to question the benefit of being part of a Constitution that continually abandons us and yet happily takes our transfer payments which support many eastern projects.
Every few years I watch as the election is already decided before I get to vote, I watched as my family struggled under the weight of an National Energy Program, crippling our Province and cringe when I hear it brought up every few months. Sit idly by while our Federal Government cashes our transfer payments so it can support Eastern Canadian interests.
When is enough, enough?
Quebec has made a very good living off threatening to leave Canada, when in reality we know they would never actually leave.
As much as it pains me to write this paragraph, is it time for BC, Alberta and Saskatchewan to consider leaving Canada? Unless Canada gets a system that gives citizens equal representation we will continually be kicked in the teeth.
I am mad and I not sure I want to take it anymore!
That is why I am shocked, dismayed and extremely angry tonight to hear that the Federal Government has reneged on yet another promise to Alberta and Edmonton and will not fund the 92 million for the Alberta Royal Museum. This basically puts the project on hold. Of course that same Government backed out of Expo funding and the Portrait Gallery promised to our City.
I have always been proud to be a Canadian, but I have to question the benefit of being part of a Constitution that continually abandons us and yet happily takes our transfer payments which support many eastern projects.
Every few years I watch as the election is already decided before I get to vote, I watched as my family struggled under the weight of an National Energy Program, crippling our Province and cringe when I hear it brought up every few months. Sit idly by while our Federal Government cashes our transfer payments so it can support Eastern Canadian interests.
When is enough, enough?
Quebec has made a very good living off threatening to leave Canada, when in reality we know they would never actually leave.
As much as it pains me to write this paragraph, is it time for BC, Alberta and Saskatchewan to consider leaving Canada? Unless Canada gets a system that gives citizens equal representation we will continually be kicked in the teeth.
I am mad and I not sure I want to take it anymore!
Thursday 20 October 2011
Eberle due to break out - Early impressions and questions.
Game Night.
Tonight the Oilers will host the Minnesota Wild in a game that will be sure to excite at the Pill Box Ok who am I kidding, what I am an Oilers Rep? Ok, perhaps more likely to bore us.
Eberle has been the player that when I have tracked forward movement of the puck, has been the top Oiler this season. When I track forward movement as opposed to negative movment, bad plays. He is bound to bulge the twine soon. He does have 3 apples to start the season.
Some early observations and questions.
Team Chemistry
The team showed some signs of showing some chemistry in the last couple of games. The kids will be back together. Horcoff and Smyth are starting to look like they did a few years ago and Jones was a good fit there.
Does anyone think the Oilers offence will break out against Minnesota? Probably not, but perhaps they go against all logic and pop 4 or 5 tonight. The offence so far has been a little of a dissapointment but to be fair, injuries have already been a factor.
Defence
Did anyone predict how well they have played so far? It is obviously very early but the Oilers are 3rd best in goals allowed this season. Anchored by a very solid Tom Gilbert, who has always been good but he has added a physical dimension to his game this year. He has been rock solid. Smid has taken another step forward this year and Corey Potter has appeared out of nowhere, perhaps he is related to Harry? Very solid, does not play beyond his limits.
The obvious question. Is this a mirage? Or has the defence taken a huge step forward? I am not going to predict that the Oilers will stay at the 3rd best team in goals against this season but perhaps a significant improvement?
Goaltending
The early season has not provided any clearer answers to who should be the number on goaltender. I expect them to continue to rotate until one falters.
Omark
On the opposite end of my tracker is Linus Omark. When he gets in the offensive zone he can cause trouble, but in the neutral zone and in the defensive zone he is a liability when it comes to moving the puck forward. The coach has already put him in the press box once and he was not good in Calgary. I am not sure how long of a leash Renney will give Omark. It will be interesting to see how he does in the next few games.
Peckham
He has struggled every game, he is not moving the puck forward and is leaking goal scoring chances against. Potter has already taken his place. The Oilers depth on defence is not very deep, Peckham will get back in this year.
The question is going to be how fast do other players past him in the future. Marincin? Gernat? Teubert? These players are developing now. Peckham may be looking over his shoulder.
Enjoy the game!
Tonight the Oilers will host the Minnesota Wild in a game that will be sure to excite at the Pill Box Ok who am I kidding, what I am an Oilers Rep? Ok, perhaps more likely to bore us.
Eberle has been the player that when I have tracked forward movement of the puck, has been the top Oiler this season. When I track forward movement as opposed to negative movment, bad plays. He is bound to bulge the twine soon. He does have 3 apples to start the season.
Some early observations and questions.
Team Chemistry
The team showed some signs of showing some chemistry in the last couple of games. The kids will be back together. Horcoff and Smyth are starting to look like they did a few years ago and Jones was a good fit there.
Does anyone think the Oilers offence will break out against Minnesota? Probably not, but perhaps they go against all logic and pop 4 or 5 tonight. The offence so far has been a little of a dissapointment but to be fair, injuries have already been a factor.
Defence
Did anyone predict how well they have played so far? It is obviously very early but the Oilers are 3rd best in goals allowed this season. Anchored by a very solid Tom Gilbert, who has always been good but he has added a physical dimension to his game this year. He has been rock solid. Smid has taken another step forward this year and Corey Potter has appeared out of nowhere, perhaps he is related to Harry? Very solid, does not play beyond his limits.
The obvious question. Is this a mirage? Or has the defence taken a huge step forward? I am not going to predict that the Oilers will stay at the 3rd best team in goals against this season but perhaps a significant improvement?
Goaltending
The early season has not provided any clearer answers to who should be the number on goaltender. I expect them to continue to rotate until one falters.
Omark
On the opposite end of my tracker is Linus Omark. When he gets in the offensive zone he can cause trouble, but in the neutral zone and in the defensive zone he is a liability when it comes to moving the puck forward. The coach has already put him in the press box once and he was not good in Calgary. I am not sure how long of a leash Renney will give Omark. It will be interesting to see how he does in the next few games.
Peckham
He has struggled every game, he is not moving the puck forward and is leaking goal scoring chances against. Potter has already taken his place. The Oilers depth on defence is not very deep, Peckham will get back in this year.
The question is going to be how fast do other players past him in the future. Marincin? Gernat? Teubert? These players are developing now. Peckham may be looking over his shoulder.
Enjoy the game!
Dubynk - adjusted save percentage .923
Was listening to Rich Winter on Oilers Now and he and his agency use a stat that takes every shot taken from different spots and then use them to figure out what an adjusted save percentage is for each goaltender in the NHL.
He advised that when they figured out all goaltenders in the NHL, Dubnyk's adjusted save percentage was .923. This would make him in the top 10 in the NHL.
Rich Winter is predicting that he will be one of the best goalies in the NHL.
Interesting.....
More to come....
He advised that when they figured out all goaltenders in the NHL, Dubnyk's adjusted save percentage was .923. This would make him in the top 10 in the NHL.
Rich Winter is predicting that he will be one of the best goalies in the NHL.
Interesting.....
More to come....
Wednesday 19 October 2011
Petry, not a shock he was sent down
Petry has struggled each game according to my movement tracker and each game it got worse. He and Peckham have been the worst defenders , so it was not a shock that Petry sat, and not a shock that Peckham took a seat in the press box.
In reality, though this is not a bad thing. There is an old hockey saying, "if you are a scorer, you have to score. If you are a fighter you had better fight" I will add if you are puck mover on the back end you better move the puck consistently and accurately. Jeff Petry is not there yet.
What I saw and tracked were the same, a player that did not move the puck at this level consistently and a player that was losing confidence. The play at this level is still too fast for Petry. This is a player that the Oilers want to develop as a top tier defender, a Whitney/Gilbert type defender that can log a lot of minutes and advance the puck. At the NHL level he is not there yet.
Getting bottom pairing minutes or sitting in the press box is not going to help Jeff Petry. He needs to play. Tom Renney made the right decision here.
More to come.....
In reality, though this is not a bad thing. There is an old hockey saying, "if you are a scorer, you have to score. If you are a fighter you had better fight" I will add if you are puck mover on the back end you better move the puck consistently and accurately. Jeff Petry is not there yet.
What I saw and tracked were the same, a player that did not move the puck at this level consistently and a player that was losing confidence. The play at this level is still too fast for Petry. This is a player that the Oilers want to develop as a top tier defender, a Whitney/Gilbert type defender that can log a lot of minutes and advance the puck. At the NHL level he is not there yet.
Getting bottom pairing minutes or sitting in the press box is not going to help Jeff Petry. He needs to play. Tom Renney made the right decision here.
More to come.....
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